A Risk Governance Initiative policy brief drawing on an Ireland–Iceland policy dialogue convened on 4 June 2026 with the Reykjavík Institute. The brief examines how lessons from Iceland’s approach to climate risk can inform Ireland’s preparedness for AMOC weakening and strengthen national resilience.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is a major ocean circulation system that contributes to Ireland’s relatively mild climate. Scientific evidence indicates that AMOC is likely to continue weakening during this century. While the timing, magnitude, and regional consequences remain uncertain, this uncertainty is itself a policy problem: Ireland needs preparedness arrangements that can work under uncertainty rather than wait for certainty.

This policy brief focuses on the governance gap between AMOC science and national preparedness. It complements existing Irish work on AMOC research, observation, communication, and climate-risk assessment, while asking how AMOC-related risks can be better connected to national resilience, emergency planning, food and energy security, coastal infrastructure, and cross-government decision-making.